ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I hate to say it, but tonite’s game is going to suck, unless you take UNC and the points and don’t want the stress of a close game. I am really impressed with Michigan State’s run through the tournament, and even more impressed with B. Anthony’s preseason pick to win it all this year. Yes, he took Michigan State.

I think there are a couple of ways that MSU can beat UNC and I will get to those in a minute. But I totally agree with Izzo. If UNC and MSU both play well, UNC will win. Yes, this is a ploy from Izzo to get the most out of his players, but it is also true. MSU has taken people out of their game and ultimately those teams have played poorly throughout this tournament. Did you see how many times MSU ran the ball up the court sprinting past Thabeet? They got to the basket before he was even under it. MSU could still disrupt UNC’s style tonite, but I don’t think it will happen. In fact, I think the air comes out of the balloon quickly in this one. Has there been a close competitive game involving UNC in this tournament yet? Not really. The LSU game was the only one that was close and UNC still won by 14.

Here is how MSU can pull off the upset;
1) Use their big men to get Tyler and the rest of the frontcourt in foul trouble. UNC is not a very deep team. They basically play 7, maybe 8 people. This has to be the focus of Izzo; get UNC in foul trouble. This is their only chance.
2) Shoot the ball well. This goes without saying, but MSU has to have a good shooting night from the 3 point line. This is something they did not do well on Saturday and did not do well the last time these two teams met.
3) Home crowd. All the UConn and Villanova tickets have likely gone to locals, so the home crowd will be like no other in an NCAA championship game.
Will any of this matter? No. North Carolina is a far superior team who is clicking on all cylinders right now. I would love to see an MSU victory, but I see absolutely no way that MSU can go “toe to toe” with UNC. This game will be one of the most boring championship games we have seen in a while.

NORTH CAROLINA -7.5 vs. Michigan State
UNC is a far superior team than MSU. They have a great team, with few flaws and are healthy now. They have had a great year and have had a target on their back all year. Everyone's pick to win it all this year, will be cutting the nets down tonite.

Final score UNC 85 MSU 67
I guess that means I like the under too. I hate taking totals, especially unders.

Good luck!
Money

Final Four musings

We have good teams reaching the Final Four, with a lot of experienced coaches. Something is missing though and I can’t my finger on it. Yes, I am bummed that Pitt is out, but I do like this Villanova team. I was not really sold on this Louisville team. I picked them to win it all at the beginning of the year, then changed my mind, and then got back on board. That sums up Louisville; talented but inconsistent. Still I would have liked to have seen that high energy style play on. I am not a fan of Michigan State and they have proven me wrong all year. I just don’t like big 10 basketball and teams that rely heavily on defense. It is a good strategy to win, just does not make for good TV viewing. But, I like Izzo and they deserve to be there so I won’t complain.

Of course, I will be watching and have planned my day accordingly. I am taking the kids to the park at 5:45am for some good quality time and then I am “checking out”. Here are my thoughts on the game.

MICHIGAN STATE +4 vs. Uconn

The kiss of death. I have been a hater all year, and now I am on them? Here is why.
1) Izzo. This guy is the best coach in the land. He constantly gets his underachieving teams to the final four. Calhoun is great too, but I have more faith in Izzo.
2) Home game. The crowd will no doubt be a benefit to MSU
3) Sutton. He can and will shoot the 3 and likely pull Thabeet away from the basket. This will be a benefit to the rest of the Spartans.
4) Defense. As I stated above, it is boring, but effective. Uconn will surely have an advantage inside, but MSU has a deep bench and they will be prepared for this. Uconn however is not that great of a shooting team, outside of Price.

I think Michigan State wins. I will take the points and the MONEYline. I hate totals, but since there are only a couple of games, I will make a pick. Give me the under of 133.5.
Final score 65- 60 Michigan state

NORTH CAROLINA -7 vs. Villanova

The easy bet is to take Villanova and assume this is way too many points. But, like all other UNC games, unless the opponent wins, North Carolina is going to cover. They are too talented and can score too quickly. The only way they don’t cover, is if UNC is down over 10 at half time, and even then I would not put it past them to still hit the original number. Villanova will have to shoot great, which they have shown they can do. They are tougher than UNC and they possess the guard speed that will give UNC fits. However, UNC will have its way with Nova inside. I think this will be a close game throughout and it would not surprise me to see Nova up at halftime, but when it is all said and done, UNC will be meeting MSU in the final game. I will take the over in this game 158.5

Final score UNC 88 Villanova 78

Good luck!
Money

Biased

I am still thinking about that Pitt game last night. I really liked them. They were my Memphis team similar to B. Anthony's feelings last year. However, I could still see that they were not the right pick and took Nova. I am a big fan of SI.com Seth Davis and he picked Pitt to win it all as well. He picked Pitt to win the game last night and picked them again at half. You think I am bummed. Read what he had to say.

“It's just a shame one of them had to lose in the end, and that's a rough way to go out for Pitt. In an earlier game today, Missouri lost to UConn and walks away taking solace in the year and in the tournament that they had --- they went further than anyone would have guessed. Pitt, on the other hand, walks away heartbroken --- they did everything but make the final play. But if you go 22 from 23 from foul line like Villanova did, you deserve to win.”

All he was talking about is how heartbroken Pitt (and himself) is. That was an incredible game, with a shot that will be remembered each and every year. Hats off to Nova and the Big East for making this a great tournament.

Sunday picks:
LOUISVILLE -6.5 vs. Michigan State
MSU has traditionally played well when Raymar Morgan has done well, and he is not playing well. They need a good game from him and this aint going to happen. MSU has depth, but not good enough depth, just people like you and me. They won’t be able to handle the press and Louisville will beat them rather easily.

UNC -7 vs. Oklahoma
I think this is another easy game. I am not a fan of Oklahoma. I have not been buying them all year. If they beat UNC then I will admit how wrong I was, which I seem to be doing a lot lately. I don’t see it happening with a healthy Lawson now.

Good luck!
Money

So good, then so bad

I was perfect on Thursday, hitting all the games and then turning around and missing all on Friday. That sucks. UNC, Louisville, Villanova and Uconn look like they are heading to the final four, but we still have to see how this plays out.

Picks for today (not doing tomorrow yet)

MISSOURI +5.5 vs. Uconn
I think this game will be won by the team who controls the tempo of the game. Mizzou will want to run and Uconn will want to slow it down and play a half court game. I think Missouri's style will win out, effectively eliminating Uconn's strength; their frontcourt. I do think Uconn will win, but this will be a battle that will be really close. This a game that Uconn really misses Dyson. They don't have enough guards to run away with this.

VILLANOVA +2 vs. Pitt
I hate to do this, but this is the right call. I love Fields and this Pitt team but they are not playing a full 40 minutes, which Nova is and what is absolutely necessary to win this game. If Pitt plays poorly in the first half and is down, like their previous three games, they will lose this game. However, if they come out strong and play the way they did 4 weeks ago, they win. Pitt is the better team, but there is no reason to believe that they can just turn it on now. Nova wins.

Good luck!

Money

Thursday/Friday

We have games again today, finally. I am very impressed with the lineup over the next couple of days and am looking forward to seeing who ends up in Detroit for the Final Four.
Quick thoughts on my all Big East final four vs. what I think now after 32 games.

Originally, I picked Pitt over Louisville in the finals with UConn and Syracuse joining them in the final four. I did not go with UNC because I did not think Lawson would be effective. He is hurt, but he will be effective and in my eyes, they are the team to beat. With that said, they have the toughest 2, 3, 4 teams to get through. Uconn has been playing great, but at some point all of these off the court distractions catch up with them. Louisville is one bad shooting night from getting eliminated. You could say that about any team, but I feel it is more relevant because Louisville is not a great shooting team to begin with. You could say Pitt has struggled because they have had a tough time in their first two games. However, they won and OSU was a good team. I agree with B. Anthony on this and that they do enough to win and keep advancing.

I hope my final four is correct, but my gut says UNC over Uconn with Pitt and Kansas joining them in Detroit.

Thursday:

UCONN -6.5 vs. Purdue
I really like this game. Purdue has no size and will get killed inside. Hummel will absolutely disappear in this game.

VILLANOVA +2.5 vs. Duke
Both teams are playing well right now, specifically Duke with the insertion of Williams into the starting lineup and moving Scheyer to the point. I feel these teams are very similar; not a lot of size and a lot of guards that can hit the shots. I believe Villanova has better guards/shooters and the better inside post player in Dante Cunningham.

XAVIER +7 vs. Pitt
I think Pitt will put together a solid all around game and make a championship run, but it won’t happen here (next game vs. Nova). Xavier is very similar to Pitt, but Pitt does everything better. This game will be close, but Pitt wins. Fields is the difference in this game.

MIZZOU +4.5 vs. Memphis
This is tough game to handicap. I could see a Memphis win and cover, more likely than I can see a Missouri victory. But, I look at three things that point me to Mizzou.
1) Tyreke Evans. He is a freshman. Is he Derek Rose and somebody who can lead your team to the Finals? I don’t believe so. He is talented, but not lottery pick talented. He needs to be flawless in this game and I don’t think he will.
2) Memphis has struggled to score. They got a huge game from Sallie off the bench in their first game. He went for 35 and his average is 7. Without that, they were dead. The next game, Mack was hitting the three. Missouri plays good defense and Memphis will struggle to score.
3) Mike Anderson (coach of Missouri) is very familiar with Memphis from his days at UAB where he competed against them well.

Friday:

SYRACUSE +1 vs. Oklahoma
The orange win this game. The zone and their size down low will give Griffin trouble. Syracuse is on a roll now and will upset the best player in basketball.

GONZAGA +8.5 vs. Unc
Gonzaga has the players to run with Unc and will likely try. If they make their shots, they can win this game. Regardless of the outcome, I believe the game will be close.

KANSAS +1.5 vs. Michigan State
MSU beat up the Jayhawks earlier this season by guarding Collins and Cole and making the rest of their team beat them, which they could not. MSU has size and depth down low to challenge KU. However, Bill Self has shown tremendous resiliency against teams that previously beat him in the past. He won’t let Izzo get the best of him this time.

ARIZONA +9 vs. Louisville
Arizona has no depth and needs a near perfect game and 22+ points each from the big three to beat Louisville. They have little room for error. But as gamblers, we are not asking them to win, just cover. Arizona has shown that their offense is not the issue. They will be able to keep the game under double digits.

Good luck!
Money